Service Plays Thursday 6/16/11

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Rx.com Mod Team has created this Service Play sub-forum in order to supply an area for Rx Service Play Posters to expand upon their posting topics without creating a logjam in the main forum where the three principle threads are maintained..

Posters can track services here if they care to but we will need any trackers to do so in an accurate and civil manner. We did not create this area for posters to ridicule or bash any services..

You can also discuss who is hot and who is not. The general state of the pay for plays industry and any other subject or topic related to service plays.

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I will leave this thread open for a month to take questions and do my best to answer them. I will check in daily but am off on Wednesday and Thursday.

I hope this additional Service Play Forum will satisfy those posters that would like to widen the scope of topics relating to service plays and the industry in general to have their own threads. Mods will be liberal as possible regarding topics but this forum was specifically created to allow you more freedom to express your ideas regarding service plays and related subject matter. No off topic threads will be allowed.

Thank you, wilheim




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GL!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers


STREAKING

C.J. Wilson, Texas Rangers (7-3, 3.09 ERA)

Wilson is 3-0 in his last four starts with a 2.27 ERA and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in his last six trips to the hill.

He can’t be dogged for neglecting his homework. Wilson has been a big supporter of watching game film and is now using an iPad app from the Bloomberg Sports system to gain the upper hand against hitters.

"Three hours, 10 hours, it depends," Wilson told reporters of his pregame video preparation. "I've always spent a lot of time on the video systems at the stadium. If you can get one extra out a game, it's worth it."

Zack Greinke, Milwaukee Brewers (6-1, 4.69 ERA)

Greinke’s been a cash cow lately with Milwaukee winning seven of his last eight starts, but he’s still giving up his fair share of hits.

He has allowed 20 hits over the last three starts though his strikeout numbers are making up for a lot of those knocks. The 6-foot-2, 190-pounder has 60 punch-outs to go along with only seven walks so far this season and is coming off a 5-3 win over St. Louis in which he struck out nine Cardinals.



SLUMPING

Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore Orioles (2-8, 3.77 ERA)

Guthrie opened the season with a 4-1 win over Tampa Bay, going eight shutout innings while striking out six and allowing just three hits. Since then, he has won just one of 12 starts, though he can’t shoulder all of the blame - Baltimore is averaging just 3. 2 runs of support in his starts this season.

The Orioles are hoping a new pitching coach can help the staff out after Mark Connor resigned on Tuesday. Bullpen coach Rick Adair takes over.

“For me, some guys you work well with, other guys you don’t work as well with. That’s the most important thing,” Guthrie told reporters. “The transition itself isn’t too difficult. It’s, ‘How does the working relationship go?’ And that’s something we’ll go through now with Rick as the pitching coach.”

Javier Vazquez, Florida Marlins (3-6, 7.09 ERA)

If you’re looking to Vazquez to explain his terrible season after signing a $7 million contract with the Fish in the offseason, don’t bother.

“Nothing’s going right,” Vazquez said. “I wish I could explain it. It’s just frustrating. It’s not fun. I’m feeling much better. My velocity is there. I feel like I’m aggressive. But things are not working.”

No kidding. He has a 11.20 ERA in his last three starts and gave up seven runs over 3 2/3 innings in his latest loss to Arizona.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

HOT LINES

Thursday's Best MLB Bets

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (-120, 8)

Funny how Chipper Jones pipes up about Jason Heyward sitting out too long with his shoulder injury and lo and behold the 21-year-old is back in the lineup about a week later after cutting a minor league rehab stint short.

The 39-year-old vet apparently called Heyward last week to smooth everything over after the issue was headline news all over the place last week.

"[Chipper] and I have a great relationship," Heyward told reporters before suiting up for Wednesday’s game. "He wasn't saying, 'We need Jason back at 100 percent.' He was saying he doesn't need to be 100 percent healthy to be on the field and help us win."

Heyward was hitting just .214 with seven homers through 140 at bats before hitting the DL, but he can definitely make a difference to the offense once he gets back into the swing of things. Atlanta’s putting up just 3.88 runs per game so far this season.

PICK: Braves


Florida Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (-235, 8)

Following Wednesday’s doubleheader, lefty Cliff Lee goes against Javier Vazquez in a major pitching mismatch and the Phillies’ bats are finally coming around.

Jimmy Rollins and Wilson Valdez did most of the damage in Philadelphia’s 8-1 win in the opening game of the doubleheader. Rollins hit a three-run homer and Valdez delivered a three-run triple, helping the Phillies outscore the Fish 17-2 through the first two games against the Fish.

"Everybody thinks we're supposed to be scoring 20 runs a game," Ryan Howard told reporters following the afternoon win. "Sorry to inform you, it doesn't work like that."

Well, maybe not 20, but the Phillies shouldn’t have much trouble putting a bunch of crooked numbers on the board against the struggling Javier Vazquez.

There’s no way we’d go near the Phillies at this price, but betting the runline or jumping on the over seem like solid wagers.

PICK: Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Betting Preview: Connecticut Sun vs Washington Mystics

Connecticut Sun at Washington Mystics (-3, 153.5)

The Connecticut Sun travel to Washington to play the Mystics at 7:00 PM on Thursday, June 16, 2011. Washington is the favorite in this matchup, laying -3.0 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 153.5.

When looking at the last 50 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 35 games compared to 15 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Connecticut/Washington series is 74 ppg while the visitor has put up 69.8 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 4.2 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 50 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 4.2 ppg. That represents a value number of 1.2 when measured against the offered line of -3.0, suggesting a wager on Washington makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 50 games between the Sun and the Mystics is 143.8 per game. That creates a differential of 9.7 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 153.5 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Connecticut as the road team and with Washington as the home team.

When looking at the last 23 games in this series while Washington has been the home team, we can see the Mystics have won 13 games compared to 10 wins for the Sun. Average points scored per game by Washington in this situation is is 70.9 ppg while Connecticut has put up 72 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 1.1 favoring the Sun.

Unlike most series', this one has leaned towards the road team. Specifically, the road team in this series has enjoyed an average advantage of 1.1 ppg. That represents a value number of -1.9 when measured against the offered line of -3.0, suggesting a wager on the Sun makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks betting against the number looking at the series situation in the vacuum of this trend.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 23 games between the Sun and the Mystics is 142.9 per game. That creates a differential of 10.6 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 153.5 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Can The Connecticut Sun Cover The Spread?

This season the Connecticut Sun have played 33 games, averaging 80.8 points per game, while allowing 77.8 points per game. This has led to a season record of 18-15. Let's have a closer look at recent Connecticut Sun results.

This season the Connecticut Sun have played 16 games on the road, averaging 79.0 points per game, while allowing 81.6 points per game. This has led to a season record of 5-11. Let's have a closer look at recent Connecticut Sun results on the road.

Can The Washington Mystics Cover The Spread?

This season the Washington Mystics have played 32 games, averaging 75.9 points per game, while allowing 73.3 points per game. This has led to a season record of 19-15. Let's have a closer look at recent Washington Mystics results.

This season the Washington Mystics have played 16 games here at home, averaging 74.7 points per game, while allowing 68.5 points per game. This has led to a season record of 12-4. Let's have a closer look at recent Washington Mystics results when playing at home.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LADY LUCK

Thursday's Best WNBA Bets

Connecticut Sun at Washington Mystics (-3, 153.5)

These teams kicked off the WNBA schedule against each other on June 4, with Connecticut taking an 89-73 victory over Washington at the Mohegan Sun Arena.

Less than two weeks later, the Sun and Mystics mix it up again in the lone game on Thursday’s WNBA slate.

The teams topped the 147.5-point total in the season opener, posting 14.5 points more than the oddsmakers’ number. Since then, both Connecticut and Washington have played over in their two games heading into Thursday’s rematch.

The Sun have topped the total with their scoring, averaging almost 85 points per game. The Mystics, on the other hand, have watched scores climb due to their poor efforts on the defensive end. They’re giving up nearly 88 points per game and allowing opponents to shoot 52.4 percent from the floor.

“It speaks to our lack of defensive focus,” Washington head coach Trudi Lacey told The Washington Times after Saturday’s home loss to the Chicago Sky. “We have to execute our defensive schemes, understand personnel, who the 3-point shooters are, and who likes to penetrate.”

Part of the Mystics’ problem on defense is a lack of experienced bodies. Washington has been bitten by the injury bug early into the season and is without Alana Beard, Monique Currie, and Ta’Shia Phillips. Beard and Phillips are game-time decisions for Thursday’s action.

The Mystics are 8-2 over/under in their last 10 contests, dating back to last season. The Sun are 6-4 over/under in their last 10 outings. The teams have gone over the number in three of their last four head-to-head games.

PICK: Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Betting Tips: MLB Favorites On A Roll

Who's Hot

MLB: The over is 9-3-2 in Boston’s last 14 games.

MLB: Arizona has won 10 of its last 14 home games.

WNBA: Connecticut is 6-1-1 against the spread in its last eight meetings with Washington.

Who’s Not

MLB: Kansas City has won just four of Jeff Francis’ last 14 starts.

MLB: Cleveland was just 2-12 heading into Wednesday’s action.

MLB: Pittsburgh is 3-9 in James McDonald’s last 12 road starts.

Key Stat

58.73 – Underdogs got off to a great start to the MLB season, but the favorites have answered back in a big way, winning 58.73 percent of the games in the last month (232-163). Road favorites are really boosting that number, checking in with a 71-42 mark (62.83 percent)

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs: Soriano was activated from the DL on Wednesday but didn’t find his way into the starting lineup due to some wet conditions at Wrigley Field. The outfielder has been out of commission since straining his left quad on May 31 and start Thursday afternoon.

Game Of The Day

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (-115, 8)

Notable Quotable

"The greens are certainly firming up from a week ago when I played. They are significantly firmer. They were even watering them, so they’re even concerned right now that they’re getting too firm." – Luke Donald told reporters about the U.S. Open’s course conditions. There was a lot of concern that the course wouldn’t be in top form after last week’s heat wave, but for what it’s worth, all of the tournament’s officials were raving about the course’s condition on Wednesday. Thursday’s weather forecast calls for light to moderate rain throughout the morning.

Tips And Notes

Brian Gordon has caught on with the New York Yankees after opting out of his contract with the Phillies and the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that he will get the call for the Bronx Bombers on Thursday against Texas. Gordon is a converted outfielder who has just three MLB relief appearances under his belt. The 32-year-old hasn’t pitched in the bigs since 2008.

It may be Washington Mystics coach Trudi Lacey’s first year coaching in the WNBA, but it doesn’t take a seasoned veteran to see that her club needs to get out of the gate a lot better. The Mystics have been outscored by an average of 10.3 in the first half so far this year and was trailing by 17 to the Sky in a 84-77 loss to Chicago as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Mystics are pegged as a 2.5-point favorite at home against Connecticut on Thursday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Canucks Wednesday night.

Thursday it's the White Sox. The deficit is 2422 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

Hondo hit with the Metamucils, Pirates and Twins last night and could have walked away with a four- bagger if the Marlins hadn't pulled a major gag job in Philly. As a result, his debt fell only to 1,325 quili cis (instead of 1,190).

Today, Mr. Aitch will stick with the Twins and mix in a Rays play -- 10 units apiece on Blackburn and Price. Also, at the urging of colleague David Satri ano, aka the Little Chief, Hondo will try a tentative 10-unit investment on Lohse and the Cards.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Thursday

Washington Nationals "pick"

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

658- 500 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one Thurs SL Cards -125

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ultimate

tampa bay

 

[jdsabre]

Computer Plays: MLB Computer GOY
*50 Atlanta Braves -120 Over New York Mets

 

[jdsabre]

Benjamin lee Eckstein
"Mr Chalk" 2011 MLB Regular Season

Week 12

Ben lee lost on Wednesday with the Tigers -$135/Indians.

For Thursday "Mr Chalk" is on the "Chalkest" game on the board the Phillies -$230/Marlins.

"Mr Chalk" is 40-34 -$1559 for the 2011 MLB regular season.

 

[jdsabre]

DUNKEL INDEX

Cleveland at Detroit
The Tigers look to build on their 10-1 record in Max Scherzer's last 11 starts during Game 3 of a series. Detroit is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-160)

Game 951-952: Florida at Philadelphia (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Vazquez) 14.300; Philadelphia (Lee) 16.147
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-235); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-235); Under

Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at Houston (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (McDonald) 15.481; Houston (Lyles) 13.633
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-105); Over

Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Greinke) 15.479; Cubs (Garza) 13.934
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130); N/A

Game 957-958: St. Louis at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 14.093; Washington (Lannan) 15.837
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+100); Under

Game 959-960: NY Mets at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Dickey) 15.308; Atlanta (Minor) 15.547
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-125); Under

Game 961-962: San Francisco at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Volgelsong) 15.534; Arizona (Kennedy) 14.886
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+140); Over

Game 963-964: Baltimore at Toronto (12:37 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 15.171; Toronto (Stewart) 13.868
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+100); Under

Game 965-966: Cleveland at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Talbot) 15.079; Detroit (Scherzer) 15.911
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-160); Over

Game 967-968: Texas at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Wilson) 14.877; NY Yankees (Gordon) 16.691
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-145); Over

Game 969-970: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 15.300; Minnesota (Blackburn) 17.078
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Under

Game 971-972: Kansas City at Oakland (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Francis) 14.755; Oakland (Gonzalez) 14.354
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+130); Over

Game 973-974: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 16.516; Tampa Bay (Price) 17.002
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Under

WNBA

Connecticut at Washington
The Sun look to build on their 6-1-1 ATS record in the last 8 meetings between the two teams. Connecticut is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Sun favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+3)

Game 651-652: Connecticut at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 114.059; Washington 113.185
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 1; 150
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 3; 154
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+3); Under

 

[jdsabre]

Hot pitchers
-- Lannan is 2-0, 1.03 in his last four starts. Lohse is 3-1, 3.31 in his last five starts.
-- Lee is 2-0, 0.60 in his last couple starts.
-- McDonald is 2-1, 2.83 in his last five starts.
-- Milwaukee won last seven Greinke starts (6-0, 4.30), scoring 45 runs.
-- Dickey has a 2.23 RA in his last five starts. Minor has a 3.06 RA in his last three starts.
-- Vogelsong is 3-1, 1.19 in his last seven starts. Kennedy is 4-1, 2.72 in his last seven starts.

-- Talbot has a 2.45 RA in his last three starts.
-- Wilson is 3-0, 2.31 in his last four starts.
-- Buehrle is 5-1, 3.00 in his last seven starts.
-- Buchholz is 4-0, 2.84 in his last eight starts. Price is 2-1, 2.57 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Vazquez is 0-2, 11.19 in his last three starts.
-- Lyles is 0-1, 4.15 in three starts this season.
-- Garza is 1-3, 5.33 in his last five starts.

-- Guthrie is 0-2, 5.88 in his last four starts. Prospect Stewart was 4-3, 4.39 in 12 AA starts in the Eastern League.
-- Scherzer has a 7.86 RA in his last five starts.
-- 32-year old rookie Gordon was an OF until 2008; he is 18-12, 3.35 in 122 minor league games (22 starts), 5-0, 1.14 in nine starts this year.
-- Blackburn has a 5.40 RA in his last three starts.
-- GGonzalez is 0-3, 5.30 in his last three starts. Francis is 1-3, 7.24 in his last five road starts.

Totals
-- Four of last five Lohse starts stayed under the total.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Vazquez starts.
-- Under is 8-2-2 in Atlanta's last twelve home games.
-- Five of last seven Houston home games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-0-1 in Greinke starts.
-- Under is 8-3 in Kennedy's last eleven starts.

-- Over is 11-2-1 in last fourteen games in the Bronx.
-- Under is 4-2-1 in Cleveland's last seven games.
-- Eight of last ten Toronto home games went over the total.
-- Over is 11-3 in Boston's last fourteen games.
-- Five of White Sox' last six road games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-2-1 in Kansas City's last eleven road games.

Hot Teams
-- Washington won its last five games, allowing eight runs.
-- Phillies won seven of their last eight games.
-- Atlanta won six of its last nine games. Mets won nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Milwaukee is 9-4 in its last thirteen games.
-- Pirates won eight of their last eleven road games.
-- Giants are 10-4 in their last fourteen games.

-- Bronx is 11-5 in its last sixteen games.
-- Detroit won 12 of its last 17 games.
-- Red Sox won 10 of their last 11 games. Tampa Bay won six of its last nine games.
-- Minnesota won ten of its last twelve games.

Cold Teams
-- Cardinals lost six of their last seven games.
-- Marlins lost 15 of their last 17 games.
-- Cubs lost 14 of their last 18 games.
-- Astros lost ten of their last thirteen home games.

-- Indians lost ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Rangers lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Toronto lost five of its last seven home games, allowing 59 runs. Orioles lost eight of their last nine road games.
-- Oakland lost 13 of its last 15 games. Royals are 4-9 in their last 13 road games.

Umpires
-- Fla-Phil-- Home side won five of last six Muchlinski games.
-- StL-Wsh-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Bucknor games.
-- NY-Atl-- 10 of 12 Hoye games stayed under the total.
-- Pitt-Hst-- Home side won seven of last eight Johnson games; favorite won his last seven, with five of last six going over.
-- Mil-Chi-- Three of last four Rapuano games went over the total.
-- SF-Az-- Four of last five Danley games went over the total.

-- Tex-NY-- Underdogs won six of last eight Everitt games.
-- Clev-Det-- Five of last six Reyburn games stayed under total.
-- Balt-Tor-- Underdogs won nine of last thirteen Davidson games.
-- Bos-TB-- Eight of last ten Darling games stayed under total.
-- Chi-Minn-- Four of last five Diaz games stayed under total.
-- KC-A's-- Underdogs won six of last eight Nelson games.

 

[jdsabre]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Brewers
Rays(RL)

 

[jdsabre]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Under 8 runs bet. St.Louis and Washington

 

[jdsabre]

GOLD RUSH CAPPING

St. Louis Cardinals +100

 

[jdsabre]

DICE IT UP ONLINE-HAMMER

25* St. Louis Cardinals -105

 

[jdsabre]

THE ADVANTAGE PLAYER

5* Arizona -130 over SF Giants